More Trusted than the Groundhog?

I read somewhere in the past 24 hours that Punxsatawney Phil is only accurate 36% of the time when it comes to predicting an early spring vs. a much longer winter, and that's similar to the record of sources like Farmer's Almanac and TV meteorologists.    In other words flipping a coin would work better.
Since tomorrow is Groundhog Day, I thought I'd offer an alternative forecast.  Last night our indoor cat was continually jumping up to around the 4 foot level against the window on our back door.  It turns out he had spied a moth on the outside of the glass  It was around 25 degrees Fahrenheit outside, so I wondered where the moth got sufficient warmth to be fluttering around out there.  Probably was nestled against the house somewhere and picking up heat that leaks through the walls.  On the other hand, maybe this moth "knew" something we don't, namely that Spring is about to spring.  I like to think so.
At any rate, I couldn't get a photo under these conditions, so I'm plugging in a photo of a colorful moth I got last summer at Oakland Camp.  It's the Eyed Sphinx.  I like sharing color at this time of year.  Call it the 'audacity of hope.'  The one on our back door window was plain brown, and might have been a skipper.